Forex Weekly Analyses

Weekly EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY Forex Analysis November 28 – December 05, 2022
The week ahead could potentially prove decisive for the dollar trend, depending on the outcomes of the scheduled high-impact events. The key focus will be on Fed Chair Powell’s speech (Wed), the PCE inflation report (Thur), and the Nonfarm Payrolls and other jobs reports (Fri). Each of these events - if there are some large surprises from expectations - could induce a new surge in volatility. Overall, given how much the dollar has already corrected since November 10, the space for a further USD decline seems to be shrinking. Instead, it now looks there is greater potential for a USD rebound, should e.g., Powell is hawkish or the NFP prints another robust number.   
Weekly EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY Forex Analysis November 21 – November 28, 2022
Even if a USD peak (that’s a big IF) was cemented in place with the CPI report on November 10, that doesn’t mean a downtrend is starting. In fact, even in a scenario where a top is behind us, there is still a lot of scope for the dollar to come back and make another upside attempt (e.g., at least to the 110.00 - 112.00 area in DXY). As discussed in the Free FxTR newsletter, one “good” CPI report won’t get the Fed to change its policy. More interest rate hikes and QT from the Fed are coming, and when markets realize that, we may get the start of a new bullish USD leg. It will remain to be seen if such a bullish leg surpasses the previous high (114 in DXY), or it may only come near it.
Weekly EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY Forex Analysis November 14 – November 21, 2022
A big move down in the dollar last week is seriously disturbing the established trends in the Fx market and is getting many traders, especially USD bulls, to question their outlook for the future. However, as discussed in our Free FxTR newsletter this Friday, we are of the view that this correction is rather a big overreaction to a single piece of CPI inflation data that is not changing (for now) the broad macro factors that are USD bullish.
Weekly EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY Forex Analysis November 07 – November 14, 2022
In the short term, the USD may consolidate for a while longer given the current circumstances; however, a sustainable end to the bull trend doesn’t seem likely yet. The situation in Europe remains frangible (with the War still raging and gas supplies for next year still at high risk), while continued rising interest rates are no good news for the global economy. The likelihood of a global recession is increasing as central banks keep on with their hawkish policies. This is an environment that is likely to eventually switch the mood back to risk aversion, which will lead to a resumption of demand for safe-haven US dollars.
Weekly EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY Forex Analysis October 31 – November 07, 2022
In what is likely to be a volatile trading week, given the Fed’s meeting on Wednesday and Nonfarm Payrolls release on Friday, we may see tight trading ranges ahead of these events. The Fed meeting is the big event, where they are expected to hike rates by 75bp again. More important, however, will be their forward guidance for the rate hike in December - whether it will be another 75bp or a smaller 50bp. The forward guidance for future rate hikes has the most potential to move markets big time on Wednesday.
Weekly EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY Forex Analysis October 24 – October 31, 2022
The dollar was trading strong for most of the past week until late on Friday when intervention from Japanese authorities to curb yen weakness triggered a broader correction in the US dollar as well.
Weekly EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY Forex Analysis October 17 – October 24, 2022
The economic data continues to suggest a very hawkish Fed for longer, which supports the case for steady and continued USD strength. In line with this, a new high in the DXY index and a break below the 0.9535 low in EURUSD looks like the probable scenario for the coming weeks. The US calendar this week is much quieter, with only housing data like building permits, home sales and housing starts in focus.
Weekly EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY Forex Analysis October 10 – October 17, 2022
This week is all about inflation, and the main attention will go to the CPI report on Thursday. Both the headline and core measures will be important, but chances are that they will show inflation remains “high”. Fed tightening expectations and hawkish rhetoric will remain intact, barring a big miss in the CPI report, which should keep the dollar underpinned this week too.
Weekly EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY Forex Analysis October 03 – October 10, 2022
The US economic calendar is quite packed this week. The focus is on the ISM manufacturing PMI (already out today at 50.9), the ISM services PMI (Wed) and the key releases of the Nonfarm payrolls and unemployment reports on Friday. More strength in this data should only reaffirm the case for more aggressive rate hikes by the Fed and, therefore, the bullish USD trend.