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AUD/USD "declined against the background of USD strengthening and has reached an important support level 0.7365 by now" (EMA50 on the daily chart). AUD still retains a strong position against the backdrop of rising energy and commodity prices. A slight decline in AUD/USD is still possible, up to the key support level 0.7330 (EMA200 on the daily chart and EMA50, EMA200 and the lower line of the ascending channel on the weekly chart).
Our main scenario would be to enter long positions from the current levels with their strengthening near the support level 0.7330. More cautious purchases of AUD/USD will be associated with the breakdown of resistance levels 0.7403 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart), 0.7439 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart) and the pair's return to the ascending channel on the daily chart.
Note that its upper limit is in the range between 0.7660 and 0.7730, which will become the goals (in the interval of 1-3 months) in the event of the development of this scenario. The breakdown of these resistance levels (0.7660, 0.7730) will be considered the final exit of AUD/USD into the long-term bull market zone.
In an alternative scenario, and after the breakdown of the 0.7365 support level, the decline in AUD/USD will continue, and the confirmed breakdown of the 0.7330 support level will signal the pair's transition to the bear market zone with targets at the local support levels 0.7175, 0.7085, 0.7037 (the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement to the wave of the pair's decline from the 0.9500 level in July 2014 to the lows 2020 near the 0.5510 mark), 0.7000, 0.6970.
Support levels: 0.7365, 0.7330, 0.7300, 0.7200, 0.7175, 0.7100, 0.7085, 0.7037, 0.7000, 0.6970
Resistance levels: 0.7403, 0.7439, 0.7465, 0.7510, 0.7555, 0.7615, 0.7660, 0.7730, 0.7815, 0.7835, 0.7885, 0.7900, 0.8000
Trading Recommendations
Sell Stop 0.7345. Stop-Loss 0.7410. Take-Profit 0.7330, 0.7300, 0.7200, 0.7175, 0.7100, 0.7085, 0.7037, 0.7000, 0.6970
Buy Stop 0.7410. Stop-Loss 0.7345. Take-Profit 0.7439, 0.7465, 0.7510, 0.7555, 0.7615, 0.7660, 0.7730, 0.7815, 0.7835, 0.7885, 0.7900, 0.8000
